00:00:01 John Daub: There's been a prophecy made that predicts the end of Japan coming on July 5th. Should you ignore these warnings from a mangaka who in the past seems to have made these very accurate predictions, so the media says, or should you just ignore all of this and think, okay, it's not based on science anyways? The problem is that a significant number of tourists from Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, even the neighboring countries—Philippines, Korea—have canceled their trips for the summer, which is probably a good thing for a lot of Western countries that probably does not take this seriously at all. But this mangaka has been somewhat accurate.

00:00:41 John Daub: I guess you could say we're going to go over this and I'm going to discuss this in a debate, a very robust one with our friend the AI bot. I have been getting this question for the last couple of months here. I just got this yesterday: "Any news in Japan lately about major earthquake predicted coming around June, July of this year?" This was an hour ago. Answer? No. I mean, no. You don't get news on this unless it actually happens. So I'm getting so many questions on this we have to talk about this.

00:01:19 John Daub: There's an image created of what this possibly could look like. It's not going to be anything like that. And we're going to discuss the reasons why. Perhaps this is a little bit taken out of context. Perhaps this is a little bit taken too far. It's a prophecy. All right. So what is this all about?

00:01:37 John Daub: There is a mangaka called Ryō Tatsuki who in her 1999 manga, The Future I Saw, claimed to have foreseen various significant events, including the 2011 Tohoku earthquake—claims to and it's not exactly, it's somewhat vague, right? Prophecies don't come in exact words. They come in like these roundabout ways. Here are some of the images that we see about this prophecy. It's actually in books, internet announcements in Japan. There's a significant amount of people who are taking this seriously.

00:02:14 John Daub: She added a new prediction, a catastrophic undersea rupture between Japan and the Philippines on July 5th, 2025, potentially triggering a tsunami three times larger than the one in 2011. This prophecy has garnered significant attention and concern, particularly in East Asia, leading to a notable decline in tourism to Japan. I'm not feeling it. We're still hitting some big numbers, but we'll see. Despite the widespread attention, it's important to note that Tatsuki's predictions are not based on scientific evidence. Experts and authorities have emphasized that there is no scientific basis for the prophecy.

00:02:59 John Daub: While Japan is indeed prone to earthquakes and tsunamis due to geographical location, the specific prediction for July 2025 remains speculative. The Japanese government continues to monitor seismic activity and has robust disaster preparedness measures in place. Residents and visitors are encouraged to stay informed through official channels and to rely on scientific data and guidance from authorities, which you should all do. But it's a news story and we all know how the media does this stuff, right? We got to get the story going. So I wanted to debate the AI bot.

00:03:26 John Daub: So who the heck is this mangaka? A little bit of background on Ryō Tatsuki and her prophecies. And it's interesting to note, like, there's some debate on whether or not these prophecies had come true or not. You have to really read between the lines for this kind of stuff here. It's a manga artist who garnered attention in a 1999 manga, The Future I Saw. It's a good one to read, in which fiction illustrates dreams she claims to have had about future events. The manga includes depictions of various disasters and notable events.

00:04:01 John Daub: You know, why is it that it's always, like, the Japanese somebody who has these special powers? Is it, like, the person who invented Bitcoin, for example, seems to be this mythical creature, mystical person, that person that's worth a trillion dollars. You know, it's always some obscure Japanese person. And there is some truth behind it. Like, there's a billionaire who had a real estate empire back in the 1980s and 1990s, who led a very, like, James Bond bad guy life. It's an interesting story. So there are people like that. Perhaps that could be the reason why.

00:04:48 John Daub: So it's basically in a manga, and she's giving, I guess, interviews and stuff like this. I don't know why people are taking it overly seriously, okay? But people do that in East Asia. And, you know, we have something called uranai (fortune telling), which are predictions, future fortune telling, which is quite big on the streets of Tokyo. Do they have real powers? I'm not sure.

00:05:07 John Daub: But how impactful has Ryō's prophecies been on earthquakes to Japan, Japan's tourism. How impactful has it been here? I'm getting notifications a lot of people have never heard about this prophecy. It's a good thing. Impact on tourism: sharp decline in bookings. Travel reservations from Hong Kong plummeted up to 83% for late June and July from Hong Kong and other places. Airlines such as Greater Bay Airlines and Hong Kong Airlines have reduced flight frequency to Japan. Some people are taking it seriously. I'm talking about corporations. Regional effects. Travel agencies in China, Vietnam. Taiwan reports significant cancellations.

00:06:09 John Daub: The prophecy gained traction through social media platforms leading to widespread anxiety. Influencers and psychics including Hong Kong's Master 7 have echoed the warning. So people are taking this seriously and echoing it because you know people are going to get views on this. Japanese authorities and seismologists have emphasized that there is no scientific basis for Tatsuki's predictions. Despite the surge of tourism early in 2025 with 10 million visitors in the first quarter, which is a huge number, the prophecy has introduced a significant setback. Will this reduce tourism to Japan? I'm not really sure. We're going to see what happens in the next couple of months.

00:06:50 John Daub: Let's really debate this now with the AI bot here. What other prophecies have come true from Ryō's predictions? This is what I would like to know and I think a lot of you would as well. So there's some debate on this but let's go over some of this. It's interesting. Because we got into the background on Ryō. I'm going to go over some of the predictions on Ryō Tatsuki. Noticeable predictions: the death of Freddie Mercury predicted by Tatsuki in a vague way. Princess Diana's death in 1997. I was actually at the gates a couple of days after Buckingham Palace a couple of days after this happened. She apparently predicted this in 1992.

00:07:27 John Daub: The 1995 Kobe earthquake. She was led by in some dream to a crack in Kobe from which predicted this 15 days later. I guess you could say that one thing led to another. It's hard to see how you got from A to Z. 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami. The cover of The Future I Saw published in 1999. The phrase "disaster will occur in March 2011." That's somewhat specific. The time era that happened just recently. And upcoming predictions. This one on the mega tsunami in July 5th, 2025. So there have been some significant predictions from Ryō.

00:08:07 John Daub: But let's get real here now. She also predicted a Kanagawa earthquake as well, which could happen in the future. They've been predicting Mount Fuji's eruption for the last 20 years or so. There's more debate on this. It's getting in the news as a warning. As trying to be prepared. But look. It's good to know that it's going to be happening. Japan is a place that is prepared for it. But should you cancel your trip based on this prediction? The answer is no.

00:08:47 John Daub: According to the AI bot. You should not cancel your trip solely based on Ryō Tatsuki's manga. No scientific basis. Earthquakes cannot be predicted. It's true. Japan is prepared. No country in the world is better prepared for an earthquake, including the big ones. As Japan and Tokyo has been preparing for a big one. Tearing down older buildings for a very long time. What do you do instead? Stay informed. Download a disaster app. There is one. You should do that. Unless you're someone who has serious anxiety over natural disasters, there's no reason to cancel your trip. If anything, this might be a quieter time to enjoy Japan. Whenever people start canceling, that's an opportunity for you to come. This might be the quietest summer for the next ten years.

00:09:27 John Daub: But is it true that so many predictions have come true? Let's play devil's advocate. The percentage of a disaster seems quite high. So let's play this out here. That's totally understandable. When you see several of Ryō Tatsuki's dreams appear to align with the real event, it could feel eerie or even convincing. But let's take a closer look. Confirmation bias. When we look at the past predictions that seem accurate, our brains naturally highlight hits and ignore misses. This is a psychological phenomenon called confirmation bias. Why we seem to gravitate to certain news agencies. Because they tell us something that we want to hear. And you know how the media is kind of biased.

00:10:13 John Daub: So retroactive interpretation. Her dreams were published in open air and ended or symbolic imagery. It wasn't exactly clear that these were the predictions. But you can kind of read between the lines that perhaps this is true. When you say July 5th, 2025, that's pretty specific. But Japan's actual earthquake risks. And no proven track record. Ryō Tatsuki does not have a real proven track record. I'm not doubting it. But I kind of am. It's a hard one. Because we all feel like there's a higher power involved. So it's hard to say. Bottom line. The fear feels real. Especially when stories line up. But Ryō's predictions are more like artistic dream diaries than evidence. This is so true.

00:10:57 John Daub: Now let's go a little bit deeper and push this a little bit further. I love debates. Including in the comments section. Thank you everybody. But why? Why take a chance? Shouldn't we go somewhere safer instead of Japan? Right? I mean. If they said that there's a high chance that this is going to happen. And Japan's already warning of a mega quake. Why even take that chance? Why not go somewhere else? Right? Isn't that safer?

00:11:20 John Daub: And I got this response. That's a fair and very human reaction. You're weighing risk versus reward. And when it comes to natural disasters, zero risk sounds more appealing than small chance or catastrophe. But avoiding Japan in July feels safer. But might not be. Japan is seismically active. There's always going to be earthquakes. Big ones are always going to happen. You don't know when. But it's a fact. Physically speaking. Japan on July 5th isn't unique. No seismologist can say July 5th is more dangerous than August or October. It's infinitely small that this will happen. A chance of an earthquake is possible. We had one just a couple of days ago. It was very small in Tokyo. You could barely feel it. But they're happening like every day.

00:12:10 John Daub: Disaster can strike anywhere, anytime. You have a higher chance of probably getting in a shooting in some other country than you would here in Japan. And I think that's certainly a fact. This is a super safe country even now. It's still relatively cheap. I'll play this out with the chat here. There could be all these things that could happen as a result. You just don't know. Hit by a bus, they say. But Japan is a place that is extremely safe. And this is why a lot of people come here. Not only is it cheap at the moment. It's also safe in so many other ways. But we always. I live here in fear. I wouldn't say I fear it. But I know that this could happen. And I'm prepared for it.

00:12:50 John Daub: Avoiding Japan because of one artist's dream isn't making you much safer. It's shifting to a different set of risks. Take it to the AI bot to give you the non-human, more rational explanation. In an age where news takes it to another level and you are fearful of it. Maybe the AI bot probably has some truth here. But your peace of mind does matter. So I think that when this stuff does happen. When this stuff does pop up. People are going to take it seriously. Because again, peace of mind really does matter. Because after all, we really are human. So whether or not you come to Japan. That's up to you. But I don't think that we should let propaganda win in this case. But peace of mind is something that's very important.

00:13:33 John Daub: I'll take some questions here. Because this is a big thing to discuss. A lot of people are really canceling their trip based on this. I mean, it's true. I mean, I just got this the other day. And to put this in even more perspective. Just yesterday. And the day before, crows were going crazy all around us. I was looking up in the sky. I saw crows. They were just going crazy. They do this every now and then. But they're looking down on me. They're really making a lot of noise. Can I mention this as well? She goes, there's something going on. So sometimes nature can tell us these signals. Maybe the crows are doing it. Toby (crow), look at them. They're like on the balcony. Like warning people. Going from balcony to balcony. Look at this. They're going around warning people. Maybe they know something. They see something from up above that we do not see. But they are literally talking to the people. You saw that, right? So I can't say for sure what the heck is going on here. But there's sometimes symbolism. The carp, the koi will sometimes know. So just putting that out there. More for comedic relief than anything else.

00:14:46 John Daub: Any questions here? What's the most dangerous thing in Japan is choking on mochi? Ralph you probably have that right. And please chew well before you swallow. Mega quake. Mount Fuji eruption. All this is predicted to happen sometime in the next 30 years. And even then we really don't know. Science first. Since the topic of seismic activity, where are the least active earthquakes? In Japan there's no place that's not really active with it. Even up in Hokkaido and down in Kyushu. And many say that Tottori down in Tottori Prefecture around Yonago is one of the safest because Mount Daisen is there. It's an inactive volcano. It also dulls the impact of typhoons. They say it's one of the safest places. Although Tottori City had an earthquake a few years ago that was really strong. Yonago and that area hasn't so much. They say that is one of the safest places. But I can't say for sure. Japan is on the Ring of Fire. Alright? So, science.

00:15:56 John Daub: Aloha, John. Finally a live stream. Hey, Michael. I've been hearing a lot about this possible tsunami prediction and wondered how accurate the predictions are. As you can see, I listed some of them. Diana, Freddie Mercury. These are high profile stuff. But they came in like these vague images. It's hard to say. Like, after the fact, you can see how possibly they line up after the fact. So you can say. But I think that there's been a lot of things that have been said. So it's hard to line these all up. Alright?

00:16:26 John Daub: But I want to say one last thing, okay? And I'm going to sit down here and say it rationally. Be smart about this. Earthquakes can happen at any time. Be prepared. I've talked about this so many times in the past here. Follow the locals on what to do. Take a note on where the place is to go in case of an earthquake. It's kind of something that I do when I check into a hotel. I just take notes. The disaster area is to go. I always have a mobile battery. Have some water with me. Always be kind of prepared. I used to sleep. Don't sleep naked, maybe. This is a really stupid one, but maybe a good idea. Don't sleep naked. Sleep with some clothes on or at least pajamas. Imagine if the big quake comes and you're one of those people, you know like Ronaldo that sleeps in the nude. And you've got to go outside in the nude. Like at the moment's notice, run outside. You've got no clothes on. I'm just saying. and maybe you want to wear, you know, something. There's some people that I know that do that. So I just went it out there. Let's be real about it. Knock on wood. And thank you, Michael, for that.

00:17:30 John Daub: I'm only going to be here for another minute or so. But, you know, when somebody delays or cancels their trip, it is an opportunity for other tourists to come in here and take advantage of it. Prices might go down as a result of it. This might be a great summer. I went to Egypt in 2001 right after the attacks in New York. I booked the trip because trips on the felucca, it was a three-week trip around Egypt. They were 90% off because nobody was going there, and the agencies just wanted to pay the guides. Maybe they got like 1% off of it. So I flew through via Athens to Egypt. Nobody was there. I went to the place. I went to the pyramids, to Giza. And I was one of three people that were there. Can you believe it? I had the whole place to myself. Mr. Beast apparently paid millions of dollars to have it. I had it to myself after this. I took advantage of it. Extremely safe. We had a police escort in a lot of places. I went to Aswan. I went really down south into the middle of Egypt. I came up on a felucca, a boat. I saw, you know, all the places. King Tutankhamen's tomb. And all this stuff that was usually ridiculously expensive at a really reduced price. Went to the Red Sea. Went scuba diving. It was amazing as a trip. And I took advantage of the fact that people were scared.

00:19:00 John Daub: Now, I'm not saying that that is for everybody, but when people tell you not to go somewhere, sometimes if you do your research, that's the best time to go to someplace. Sometimes. And it's something that you should consider, especially if the price is right. It was right for me. And that was one of the greatest three weeks that I've had. All the food was on the table. The food was included. It was really incredible. I'll share some pictures and stories with you in a future livestream.

00:19:22 John Daub: But this could be a summer where a few tourists come. This could be a summer where it's really, really crowded. But so far, we're like on course for 45 million tourists to be here. Sorry, battery died. It wasn't something with the prophecy. But again, if we don't reach 45 million tourists, it's probably because of this prophecy. And if an earthquake doesn't happen, the thing is with this prophecy, an earthquake is bound to happen at some time. And then everyone will say that the prediction was right. And then thus continues the cycle of these prophecies. But I've had my prophecy, my uranai, my palm read and all this stuff. And they were vaguely correct on some things, but they could probably have told that, figured that out through being just a smart person. So think about it. Take advantage of this opportunity, knowing that a lot of the neighboring countries might not be coming because of a prophecy. But it's always good to be prepared for an earthquake if you do come to Japan and know a little bit about it because there's some dangers with some things. But also the vast beauty and the safety of Japan is unparalleled in so many respects. I hope you guys enjoyed it. Let me know your comments below. Let this debate rage on as July 5th makes its way here. I'm not really that worried. Actually, I will be here in Japan on that day. So see you then. For real. See you then. Don't worry about it.