00:00:01 John Daub: Hello and welcome to the city of Tokyo. In the news since the population birth rate data came out last week, it's been in the news quite a bit. Every year at this time, you can almost guarantee that the western media is going to be talking about Japan's amazing decline in the birth rate, the population decline. By 2050 Japan will be just cyborgs. There's going to be nobody here. These streets that I'm walking on right now are going to be completely empty, devoid of life, no children whatsoever. Society looks very bleak, grim. The outlook for Japan, non-existent. But yet, Japan finds a way.

00:00:31 John Daub: So in this episode I wanted to go through some of the information. Big shout out to YodaJedi01 for bringing this to my attention this morning. He says, what is your thought on this video? I watched the video yesterday before he brought it up. It's well done, goes over a lot of details. I think the title is a little much: Japan declares war. What do you mean by Japan? Because this party is just a very small percentage of the people. They have only 15 seats in the house. So I'm not sure if it's Japan declaring war on immigrants. But it's an issue, and that's what we're going to be talking about here.

00:01:41 John Daub: It's no secret. Every year since like 2016 we've been talking about this. Japan's population peaked quite a while ago. There's an article not too long ago from Yomiuri newspaper with this chart. Japan's population peaked at 128 million in 2008. That was when the Lehman Brothers markets collapsed, the world markets crashing, things getting worse. But that's the peak. The blue line is the population decreasing. 2008 hits, that's the peak. Then the red lines show the decrease, the minus in population going at a more rapid pace than expected. It's not that the population is declining, it's that it's declining so fast. We were hit with nearly a million people less than last year, which is crazy for a population. That's like 1% of the population gone just by natural causes, more people leaving us than being born. And that is very concerning to me.

00:03:08 John Daub: Now, what does Japan do about this? This is an issue. Japan's natural population change marked its largest drop ever according to the estimates—that was last year. They've got all these plans, all these ideas. Almost none of them have been put into practice. It's irritating as someone who lives, is a resident of Tokyo, which is actually seeing an increase in population. It's the rest of the country that's on the decline. But this video kind of puts it into perspective. We have this new political party, Sanseitō (参政党，Participation Party), started by a guy who used to work in a supermarket. I don't say that disparagingly. Average people getting involved in politics, he's young, they want change. It's a result of lack of leadership from the Jimintō (自民党，Liberal Democratic Party). They've been ruling for the majority of the post-World War II era, and many people think not so well, but the other parties are not better. So there's a leadership vacuum in Japan, apparent for a very long time.

00:04:25 John Daub: We had Prime Minister Abe, the longest serving prime minister. He kind of fixed things. He was determined not to be a one-year prime minister and found a way using his experience the first time to really be a leader and push things forward, whether you agreed with him or not. There was stability, and it was at the worst of times too, when the whole world was collapsing under the pandemic. So that's the context of the leadership vacuum here. This video on Sanseitō is very intriguing, but it also hits on the population decline and a lot of other stuff where the West—and WRX Turbo's in the house—Westerners who have never been in Japan, don't live in Japan, always think they have the best solutions. But if you look at Western countries, they're more in chaos than ever before. So Westerners' opinions on how Japan should solve their population decline probably not the best people to ask.

00:05:48 John Daub: Immigration, I don't even know what an immigrant is in the United States anymore. If you come into the United States illegally without a passport or visa, you are an immigrant. I think that's wrong. Because I come from a prism of living in Japan for 27 years. If you come here without a passport, without a visa, you are illegally here and you will be deported. Japan takes very few asylum seekers anyways. You'll be taken by the authorities, put in detention which is like prison, and eventually deported. That means you can't come back for seven years. People have died in detention—look this up. Prison in Japan is not good. They give you black and white TVs because it's more irritating to watch black and white standard definition TVs than no TV at all. So they find psychological ways to make prison really suck. Immigration has to be legal immigration into Japan. You've got to get rid of this neo-Western definition of what it is to be an immigrant. If you're in Japan illegally, you're going to be taken out. That's the way we do it here.

00:07:18 John Daub: I got to renew my visa, do everything by the book because the tax people in Japan, as well as the banks, everything in the system works by having a zairyu card (在留カード，residence card), which you must always carry that shows you're a legal resident. Without that, you can't do anything in this country. You can't think of this in terms of Western society. If you're not in the country legally, then you're not an immigrant—you're an illegal immigrant in the eyes of Japan. The reason they don't want more immigration is that people don't assimilate anymore. This is an issue we're seeing in the West. America is a melting pot: American Irish, African American, Asian American. France has immigrants but not as much a melting pot. Japan is not that. Japan is not a melting pot. They are Japanese—99% of the population. There's an increasing amount of foreign residents, but if you want to be a resident in Japan, you have to assimilate. You have to learn the language, learn the culture, find a way to make a life within this.

00:09:11 John Daub: In order to solve the population problems, it's not going to be immigration into Japan, but in these areas: construction, elder care, agriculture, and hospitality and tourism. These four sectors are where you can't solve it with robots and AI. You can only solve this with actual human beings with a very good understanding of Japanese and the culture. That means unskilled people—unskilled meaning you can't understand the culture or the language, because those are skills—there's really no use for you here in Japan at this time. They don't really want you to retire here because there's more people over the age of 65 than they need. Retirees coming into Japan, the people I've talked to don't really want to see more older people like me. I'm not retired, but I got white hair. Yes, you need foreigners in those sectors. Not all tourists are the same, but not all immigrants are the same.

00:11:11 John Daub: You can't really predict how a foreigner is going to react when they come here. For me, in 1998 when I came, I'm the last man standing. I've known hundreds, maybe thousands of foreigners. I'm the last one here from that era. Everybody else has left. I've stayed because I found a way to make a niche, to assimilate, to understand the society and really like it. You have to be able to do that to stay here. You think you'll like it, you move here, then you find out there are a lot more challenges. You're not in America. A lot of Westerners think their system is better and Japan should change to them. You can't have that attitude. You have to change to Japan. The nail that stands up gets hammered down. Unless you assimilate into the culture, you're going to have a hard time after a year. You don't have to be Japanese, but you have to understand the culture: change your garbage, keep your TV volume low after 10 p.m., don't make noise, understand the patterns. When you understand the way society works and the flow of life, everything works seamlessly. That's what foreigners like and why they want to move here. But the problem is they move here and can't change a little bit, can't evolve.

00:13:12 John Daub: Immigration to Japan is not feasible because Japanese will lose their identity. We're seeing that in France, Britain, European countries—they're losing identity, which is why nationalist uprisings. You can't let people in indiscriminately; you have to be very selective. Japan is very selective. If you're in one of these fields, you probably have a good chance of getting a visa. With hospitality and tourism, English language is one. But eikaiwa (英会話，English conversation school) teachers, you're all being replaced by AI. In about two, three years, eikaiwa schools are out of business except perhaps for children only. Adult eikaiwa is on the way out.

00:14:25 John Daub: Here's why immigrants might be really helpful. More workers equals more productivity and consumption. Immigrants consume inside the country; it's good for the economy. Regional revitalization: immigrants not in Tokyo, Kyoto, Osaka help sustain depopulating rural areas. I walk through some cities in Japan and it's like a ghost town. Skilled diversity brings different ways of thinking, needed to attract tourists away from the golden route, especially in IT fields and the care sector. So many nurses needed; more Filipino nurses coming in. Criteria to be a nurse here has gone down because Japan was unrealistic before. We need more doctors, people in the medical field because so many over 65.

00:16:05 John Daub: I understand this is controversial. Sanseitō Party is a small minority getting attention because it's new, something to be concerned about. It's not just anti-immigrant, anti-tourist, foreigners go home. That was like that before Sanseitō, five years ago, when I first moved here. You'd see nationalists in trucks blasting music. Sometimes I would wave until I understood who they were. The manager of the English school said don't wave—they'll ask for a donation. The music was World War II music—holy crap. Japan is really starting to boost the birth rate. In Tokyo, more incentives to have children: free childcare subsidies, daycare centers free. I don't have to pay for my son to go to hoikuen (保育園，nursery). It's 9:30 to 5; drop off, pick up, he's getting education, teaching English and skills. Police officers go in and teach kids about life. They interact with other kids—that's free in Tokyo now.

00:18:17 John Daub: Longer parental leave is starting to come, but parents wouldn't take it before because they wanted to be part of the team. That thinking led to disadvantage in having children. For the longest time, people were interested in careers, making money, being a team player—having kids was bad. That's a bad thing for Japan through the 80s, 90s, 2000s, coming to roost now. Same as China with their demographic problem, even worse—a boom and bust, catastrophic. Japan is safe because it's been expected, gradual decline. Extended working life, retirement age—they're trying to get older Japanese to keep working. My wife's father is over 70 and still working. It keeps him busy; he likes it, hangs out with people at work. I'd like him to retire to help with Leo, but he doesn't want to. That company couldn't replace him— not a lot of younger people would take that job.

00:20:00 John Daub: More incentives for seniors to work full time. At McDonald's, instead of hiring abroad, more senior citizens doing fast food, service jobs. People cleaning toilets in the park are older Japanese with manners. I remember at Osaka Castle, midstream an old lady came in cleaning the urinal lip between my legs. I took half a step forward—it was odd, but those are the people keeping restrooms clean. Reskill programs for older workers. I love talking to taxi drivers. More young ones, but many are retired company workers staying active, meeting people. They had office careers; now taxi driving. Fascinating.

00:22:31 John Daub: Women's workforce participation is key to Japan's long-term growth. Reduce long overtime culture, expand childcare, promote women to leadership roles—a necessity. Women would make better leaders or competition would make men better. More women in powerful positions, though behind the West. But for workforce, women in their 50s with grown kids could go back to work. Many have skills, going to college, being productive. Increased labor productivity: automation, robotics, AI manufacturing. Japan is leaning into robotics more. The West fears robots as Terminator, Skynet. Japan, robots are heroes—Astro Boy, Ultraman. Comfort level higher here. Answer is less immigration, more robots, more AI. Robots assimilate better than immigrants. Only 20% of people who come to Japan care about the arts, ikebana (生け花，flower arranging), tea ceremony, learn the language—one in five become real humans. 80% probably not, based on my experience.

00:26:31 John Daub: Digital transformation—still use fax machines, paperwork rules despite digitalization push. Taro Kono is digital minister, probably next prime minister. Young, Georgetown University, fluent English, diverse background, hilarious. More futuristic look for Japan. Ishiba fell asleep at memorials—needs energy. Regional revitalization: shift jobs, education, infrastructure to rural areas like Kochi, Kirishima in Miyazaki-Kagoshima, Gunma, Tohoku. Get people out of Tokyo. Build infrastructure, need more farmers for rice, domestic production. Entrepreneurs could innovate in countryside with business investor visas. Sector-specific efficiency: tech-assisted robotics for agriculture, AI to reduce waste. International outsourcing: move operations abroad rather than import workers. Manufacturing outsourced—put factories in Indonesia, India, China.

00:30:53 John Daub: To overcome population decline and aging society—30-35% over 65, unsustainable but gradual. By 2040 working age could drop to 20 million, but AI replaces jobs. Robot barista at Starbucks in Japan first—we accept robots. Service is good with Japanese workers, but future. Look, robot doing deliveries across the street, crossing on red light. Nobody remote controlling—societal integration. Rakuten robots on streets; I almost hit one on bicycle. Delivery services overworked; robots filling in, doing food deliveries.

00:34:34 John Daub: Can Japan's economy rise again? Not the same way—evolution. Post-WWII, US put them on sustainable growth path, no defense budget to invest in business. Focused on efficiency, what consumers wanted abroad. Took products like vacuum cleaners, TVs, VCRs, trains, cars—didn't invent but made better, sold back competitively. Walkmans innovative too. But can't go back to manufacturing-based; China doing that now—DJI, Insta360 impressive. Chinese families more in tune with American values than Japanese—highways like America, big cars. Japan compact. Immigration not solution to Japan's problems. They have Japanese solution: look at US mess, don't want it. Whether left or right, no visa no entry. If people don't assimilate, society breaks down. Japanese want to stay Japanese.

00:38:23 John Daub: I'm a known factor in my community—supermarkets, police, garbage men know me because I talk to everybody. A lot of foreigners stick to groups, English, don't touch culture. That's led to Sanseitō growth—not tourism, but foreigners living off welfare. Even Japanese don't—too much pride. In Kanazawa hitchhiking, camped in park, homeless lady wouldn't get city support. Japanese won't take welfare despite paying in. Foreign ex-residents live off it without paying in. I paid into nenkin (年金，pension) for 27 years, health insurance mandatory—many foreigners don't. Used to prove payment for visa; bet they bring it back.

00:43:10 John Daub: Foreign workers now 2.1 million, 1.6% population—far below average, mostly from Korea, China. Big Korean population in Japan; third-generation still Korean passports, no birthright citizenship except US. They're more Japanese than Korean. Start immigration with neighbors. Some friends more Japanese than Japanese—better Japanese even. But it's by blood, family—that's Japanese way. You can't change Japan; Japan changes you. One in five immigrants stay by evolving. Those who pick up ikebana, karate, woodblock printing give back, teach in English.

00:54:30 John Daub: Japan in decent spot with productivity, half population means less to pay programs, more money. Embrace of tech, robotics, AI. Japan not for everybody—hard place. Recommend Chani Japan channel: Australian in countryside, akiya (空き家，abandoned house) life, authentic, adapting well. This video not clickbait—I'm here live. Tourism at 44 million expected. Main channel passed live stream channel—focusing more on edited content.

00:58:40 John Daub: Japanese society moved on; answer not immigration but AI, robotics—well integrated, robot crossed street, people not freaking out. See you in another livestream tomorrow.